It is no secret that the way in which we watch films has modified dramatically in recent times. The COVID-19 pandemic compelled theaters to shut for months on finish in 2020, essentially reshaping Hollywood with the business doubling down on streaming. Whereas studios have largely realized that they nonetheless want film theaters and income from the field workplace, it has been a really sluggish climb to return to a semblance of normalcy in that division. Sadly, a brand new report gives a sobering actuality. In brief, we could by no means return to pre-pandemic requirements in relation to ticket gross sales.
PwC’s annual media and leisure outlook report was launched just lately, and, per The Hollywood Reporter, the prospects for the field workplace aren’t nice. The agency expects the business to complete with $9.6 billion domestically in 2025, up from $8.9 billion in 2024. These ranges will rise to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028, and $10.8 billion in 2029. This feels like some huge cash, however these numbers will not contact pre-pandemic highs — not even shut.
The earlier home field workplace document was set in 2018, when ticket gross sales topped $11.8 billion. On the plus facet, PwC estimates that we could lastly attain pre-pandemic ranges once more in 2030. The issue? By then, it will likely be as a result of ticket costs are rising, with an even bigger deal with premium codecs like IMAX. General, attendance will nonetheless be down. Bart Spiegel, PwC world leisure and media chief, had this to say about it:
“Sadly, this full restoration is unlikely inside the forecast interval. Nonetheless, we challenge that by the tip of 2029, the business shall be getting ready to a full rebound. In different phrases, 2030 would be the 12 months world field workplace revenues return to pre-pandemic ranges.”
What does that quantity to? There have been 777 million admissions in 2023 and 734 million in 2024, a 12 months impacted significantly by the WGA and SAG strikes. 2025 is projected to see 778 million, rising to 823 million by 2029. However that pales compared to the 1.3 billion tickets bought in 2019. That is roughly a 37% drop in general attendance.
Film theaters and Hollywood must adapt to the brand new regular
“It is necessary to do not forget that business revenues are in the end pushed by value occasions quantity. On this case, whereas ticket costs are rising, admissions (quantity) aren’t anticipated to return to pre-pandemic ranges,” Spiegel added. “As a substitute, the expansion in world field workplace income is being fueled by greater ticket costs. These ticket value will increase are pushed by a number of components, together with enhanced infrastructure and amenities, technological developments, and rising content material prices.”
Globally, the outlook is not any higher. The worldwide field workplace is anticipated to hit $33.5 billion this 12 months, in comparison with simply shy of $30 billion final 12 months, topping out at $37.7 billion in 2029. That is nonetheless shy of 2019, which hit a staggering $39.4 billion. Much more sobering? Netflix’s whole income was $37.5 billion in 2024 alone, illustrating the hole between streaming and the field workplace that now exists.
This all quantities to large issues that the business at giant should reckon with. Theaters must make up income, which leads to greater ticket costs and exhibiting extra adverts earlier than films. Although AMC is now attempting to reverse course on that because of unfavorable response from patrons. Sony Photos chairman Tom Rothman has argued for decrease ticket costs to extend quantity, however that does not appear to be catching on.
Studios, in the meantime, have to determine the best way to make films make sense regardless of greater budgets and decreased returns. Motion pictures like “Jurassic World Rebirth” can nonetheless be hits, pulling in $828 million, however that is nicely under the earlier entries within the “Jurassic World” franchise. For now, there aren’t any crystal clear solutions, however Spiegel did provide some hope within the report.
“U.S. business historical past reveals that the sector has skilled challenges many occasions earlier than, with every little thing from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust laws of the Forties, the arrival of TV as a mass medium within the Forties and Fifties, and the VHS revolution of the Nineteen Seventies. In every case, the sector recovered. It’s doing so once more now.”
One can solely hope historical past repeats itself and the business manages to get better on an extended sufficient timeline.
