In 2019, a confidential supply – an influential Taliban commander from the Peshawar Shura with ties to Al Qaeda – was discreetly dropped at Kabul for periodic debriefing periods. Throughout one in every of these periods, an analyst requested him why Al Qaeda had managed to outlive for therefore lengthy. The senior Taliban commander responded, “Jihad(ism) is just not like communism that collapsed underneath stress.” He then recited two verses from the Qur’an, Surah al-A’la (87:16-17): “However you favor the worldly life, whereas the Hereafter is healthier and extra enduring.” He elaborated that Al Qaeda doesn’t make any promise to materially change peoples’ lives however as a substitute prioritizes the Hereafter over the worldly life. The group fighters will not be motivated by materials achieve — they combat for Akhirah (the Hereafter). Based on him, Al Qaeda indoctrinates its members with the assumption that this worldly life, with all its hardships, is a brief take a look at, and that persistence is important for attaining victory and success in each this life and the everlasting one.
Whereas such reasoning might not resonate with many world wide—who may discover it tough to dedicate their lives to a path of violence and destruction—this rhetoric has been one in every of Al Qaeda’s simplest instruments. It helped the group not solely survive the post-9/11 International Conflict on Terror but additionally develop its networks, territorial presence, and help base. Al Qaeda’s ideological narrative even enabled the group to pioneer some improvements in violence, resembling establishing suicide items with superior information of improvised explosive gadgets (IEDs), which have been used to focus on the group’s enemies – together with civilians – in dozens of nations. The group prolonged this ideology to its many associates and associates, in addition to to 1000’s of impressed people globally, encouraging them to undertake the identical rhetorical framework in pursuit of Akhirah (the Hereafter). The decision for a greater afterlife has deeply resonated with youth in varied societies, notably the place people are trying to find that means of their existence or grappling with hardships resembling poverty, hopelessness, and different types of deprivation fueled by battle and atrocities world wide. Such attraction of the afterlife offered Al Qaeda with the chance to develop by exploiting these grievances.
As well as, Al Qaeda’s management has employed a deliberate technique to take care of ideological coherence throughout its international community. This coherence has considerably empowered the group to proceed its mission and propagate its imaginative and prescient of “limitless and steady jihad.” The idea of perpetual jihad eliminated any perceived want for a concrete timetable for victory, fostering a way of strategic persistence amongst its fighters – a mindset that was then instilled throughout its varied branches.
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Localization: Technique of Assimilation
In September 2019,throughout a joint Afghan-U.S. operation, Asim Omar – the Emir of Al Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) – and Abu Raihan, his courier to Ayman al-Zawahiri – the second Emir of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden – have been killed, and a few dozen others have been arrested. Amongst these detained was an AQIS propaganda staff, skilled by Al Qaeda in Karachi, Pakistan. This staff – comprising each women and men – was tasked with conducting social media-based propaganda campaigns designed to instill and maintain a way of strategic persistence amongst Taliban fighters. Their mission was to mitigate the psychological influence of the continued Doha negotiations with the U.S. The identical staff was additionally accountable for transferring their technical experience to Taliban parts in Helmand and neighboring provinces.Undoubtedly, this was not the one Al Qaeda staff supporting the Taliban in such efforts.
In April 2020, the Nationwide Directorate of Safety (NDS) -Afghanistan’s nationwide intelligence company underneath the Republic – uncovered 5 extra groups skilled and supported by Al Qaeda working in varied provinces, together with Paktika, Ghazni, Kunduz, Faryab, and Kunar. This collaboration intensified after the Taliban’s takeover ofAfghanistanin August 2021. Quite a few Al Qaeda technical groups, skilled within the Center East, arrived in a number of Afghan provinces to run social media campaigns on behalf of the Taliban and to supply coaching to chose Taliban members who had handed a troublesome safety clearance course of. Some confidential stories fromAfghanistaneven point out that Al Qaeda groups benefit from computerized automated packages often known as bots as a part of their operations. Whereas the usage of such bots is restricted inAfghanistan, the group employs the identical packages in different components of the world as properly.
Notably, the Taliban management formally denied Asim Omar’s demise within the Helmand operation – just like their response following the U.S. strike onAyman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in July 2022. Al Qaeda along with the Taliban even took steps to sow doubt amongst regional intelligence companies. In a single occasion, a Taliban commander in Helmand despatched a message by way of a courier to one in every of Omar’s relations in India, claiming that he was nonetheless alive. Because of this, the household avoided holding a funeral ceremony. This deception prompted some intelligence businesses to query whether or not to simply accept stories of Omar’s demise and take away him from their watchlists. Nonetheless, the NDS formally introduced Omar’s demise in October 2019, practically two weeks after the operation. This affirmation adopted official procedures, together with forensic verification. This case illustrates how Al Qaeda and its associates manipulate perceptions to power intelligence businesses to waste sources confirming what’s already confirmed. Given the restricted nature of intelligence sources, such distractions may end up in alternative prices – forcing businesses to divert consideration from different higher-priority threats.
Decentralization: A “Community of Networks”
One other calculated step, applied with the help of Ayman al-Zawahiri was the transformation of the group from a centralized hierarchical construction right into a decentralized “community of networks.” This strategic shift allowed the group to diversify its recruitment base.As soon as dominated by a small circle of Arabs from the Center East, Al Qaeda advanced right into a broader community comprising 1000’s of people both immediately recruited or impressed by its ideology and narratives.Abu Musab al-Suri, one in every of Al Qaeda’s key ideologues, envisioned this decentralized mannequin and is also known as the architect of the brand new Al Qaeda. This transfer considerably amplified the group’s international messaging and affect. Concurrently, it elevated the variety of people showing on intelligence watchlists worldwide. Extra folks to observe meant better demand on intelligence sources, additional complicating the already complicated panorama of the International Conflict on Terror. The method considerably contributed to creating and sustaining resilience amongstAl Qaeda members and fighters. Clearly, the group’s development regardless of intensified international counterterrorism efforts underscores the effectiveness of this technique in enhancing Al Qaeda’s transformation.
The decentralization method laid the inspiration for one more strategic shift inside Al Qaeda. Ayman al-Zawahiri led a course of to facilitate the embedding of Al Qaeda management and army cadres inside native associates and associates. This helped Al Qaeda to put low and submerge inside different native terrorist teams. As an illustration, in October 2020, Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, often known asAbu Muhsin al-Masri, one in every of Al Qaeda’s high leaders, was killed in Ghazni province ofAfghanistanduring an operation carried out by the NDS. Throughout the operation, two of his Afghan aides have been additionally arrested. The NDS later realized that each aides had twin allegiance to each Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Current stories fromAfghanistansuggest that twin allegiance has elevated among the many Taliban and turn out to be a traditional phenomenon inside terrorist teams in South and Central Asia. One of many aides was accountable for offering safety and safety to al-Masri with the help of the Taliban. Primarily based on supplies confiscated in the course of the operation, al-Masri was accountable for offering monetary help and technical experience to a number of Taliban and HQN teams in Ghazni and surrounding provinces. Considered one of his tasks was to carry cohesion between the Quetta Shura and HQN actions. The second aide, often known as Zahid, was launched after a couple of months, as his identify was on the Taliban checklist of 5,000 to be freed based mostly on the US-Taliban so-called Doha peace deal.
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Sustaining Authority: A Dangerous however Efficient Strategy
In 2018, the Nationwide Directorate of Safety (NDS) arrestedAbdullah Mansouraka Ansari aka Masoum – the second-in-command of the Turkistan Islamic Social gathering (TIP) – throughout an intelligence operation designed to seize him as he traveled from Pakistan toAfghanistan. Following his arrest,Abu Zar al-Burmi, who was accountable for managing Al Qaeda’s relationships with varied teams such because the Islamic Motion of Uzbekistan (IMU), the TIP, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and different regional terrorist organizations, contacted the NDS via an middleman. He appeared to supply his collaboration, however his precise goal was to safe Ansari’s launch. To persuade the NDS of his id and sincerity, Abu Zar traveled from Karachi, Pakistan, toAfghanistanand participated in a number of debriefing periods. As soon as the NDS uncovered his true motives, the important thing query arose: why would he take such a big threat for Ansari? The reply was twofold. First, he had been instructed by Al Qaeda’s management to take action – using deception to facilitate the discharge of his “Mujahid brother.” Second, Al Qaeda wanted to claim its authority and management over affiliated networks. Al Qaeda regards teams such because the Taliban, the Haqqani Community, the Turkistan Islamic Social gathering, and different terrorist organizations in Central and South Asia as extensions of its army arm. Due to this fact, it views the safety and empowerment of those teams – even at nice private and operational threat – as important to preserving the respect and authority it instructions inside its huge international community.
Conclusion
Al Qaeda’s survival is just not unintended – it’s the results of a deliberate fusion of ideology, technique, and deception. By rejecting standard milestones and embedding itself inside broader militant ecosystems, the group has tailored to international stress whereas remaining dedicated to its core imaginative and prescient: “limitless jihad” in pursuit of the Hereafter. So long as this ideology endures – fuelled by perception, sustained via alliances, and cloaked in misdirection – Al Qaeda will stay a persistent and underestimated risk, not simply to nationwide safety, however to the understanding of what really sustains trendy terrorism.
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