Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Azerbaijan in February, and Turkiye solely a month in the past, in April.
But, this week, he was again in each international locations, as a part of a five-day, four-nation diplomatic blitzkrieg additionally together with stops in Iran and Tajikistan, the place Sharif will maintain talks on Thursday and Friday. And he isn’t alone: Sharif is being accompanied by Military Chief Asim Munir — just lately promoted to Pakistan’s solely second-ever subject marshal — and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar.
Their locations is likely to be acquainted, however the context has modified dramatically since Sharif’s earlier visits.
Greater than two weeks after a four-day standoff between Pakistan and India – throughout which they exchanged missile and drone strikes – diplomacy has grow to be the brand new battlefront between the South Asian neighbours.
India has launched a world diplomatic marketing campaign, sending delegations to over 30 international locations, accusing Pakistan of supporting “terrorist teams” answerable for assaults in India and Indian-administered Kashmir.
“We wish to exhort the world to carry these answerable for cross-border terrorism accountable, those that have practiced this for 40 years towards India, that’s Pakistan. Their actions should be referred to as out,” mentioned Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs, final week.
On April 22, gunmen killed 26 folks, most of them vacationers, in Pahalgam, a hill resort in Indian-administered Kashmir within the worst such assault on civilians in years. India blamed the killings on The Resistance Entrance (TRF), which it alleges is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based group designated as a “terrorist” entity by the United Nations. New Delhi accused Islamabad of complicity within the assaults.
Pakistan denied the allegations, calling for a “clear, credible, unbiased” investigation.
Then, on Could 7, India launched a sequence of missiles geared toward what it mentioned was “terrorist infrastructure” in components of Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Islamabad insisted that the missiles struck civilians, mosques and colleges. Greater than 50 folks, together with at the very least 11 safety personnel have been killed within the Indian missile strikes.
This was adopted by drone incursions and, on Could 10, each side fired missiles at one another’s navy bases, as they stood on the point of a full-fledged struggle earlier than they agreed to a ceasefire that the US says it brokered.
Now, Pakistan, say officers and analysts, is seeking to flip India’s narrative earlier than the world — projecting itself as an advocate of peace and stability in South Asia, and New Delhi because the aggressor seeking to stoke tensions.
‘We would like peace’
On Wednesday, Sharif expressed willingness to interact in dialogue with India on “all issues,” if India reciprocates “in all sincerity.”
Talking at a trilateral summit in Lachin, Azerbaijan, Sharif mentioned commerce might resume if India cooperated on all points, together with “counterterrorism.”
“I’ve mentioned in all humility that we wish peace within the area, and that requires talks on the desk on points which want pressing consideration and amicable decision, that’s the difficulty of Kashmir, in response to the resolutions of the United Nations and the Safety Council, and as per the aspirations of the folks of Kashmir,” he mentioned.
Kashmir, a picturesque valley within the northeastern subcontinent, stays the root of battle between the 2 nuclear-armed nations since their independence in 1947.
A 1948 UN decision referred to as for a plebiscite to find out Kashmir’s future, however eight many years later, it has but to happen.
India and Pakistan every administer components of Kashmir, whereas China controls two small areas. India claims your entire territory; Pakistan claims the portion administered by India, however not the areas held by its ally China.
Contrasting diplomacy
However there are different motivations driving Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach too, say officers and specialists.
India’s diplomatic delegations which can be at the moment touring the world embrace members from varied political events, together with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) and the opposition Indian Nationwide Congress (INC), projecting a unified stance.
In distinction, Pakistan’s present mission is led by high state officers, together with Sharif and military chief Munir, broadly thought-about probably the most highly effective determine within the nation.
The journey additionally displays strategic alignment, say analysts. Turkiye, whose drones have been utilized by Pakistan within the current battle, is a key protection accomplice.
“Pakistan’s protection cooperation with Turkey is particularly deep,” mentioned Christopher Clary, assistant professor of political science on the College at Albany.
“Proof suggests a number of Turkish-origin programs have been used on this current conflict, with various ranges of effectiveness, so there may be a lot to speak about between the 2,” he advised Al Jazeera.
Khurram Dastgir Khan, a former federal minister for overseas affairs and defence, is a part of a Pakistani delegation set to go to the US, UK and EU headquarters in Brussels subsequent month.
He mentioned the present journey by Sharif, Munir and Dar is at the very least partly about highlighting Pakistan’s capability to wage a contemporary struggle towards a bigger adversary. “There’s immense curiosity in how Pakistan fought the current struggle,” Khan mentioned.
“There are international locations deeply all in favour of studying the small print, what capabilities Pakistan used and what Indians had,” he added.
“This opens new strategic prospects for Pakistan’s defence forces to supply coaching to others. We’re battle-tested. This makes us extremely wanted, not simply within the area however globally.”
Pakistan relied closely on Chinese language-supplied weaponry, together with the fighter jets and the missiles that it deployed towards India, and the air defence programs it used to defend itself from Indian missiles.
Submit-conflict narrative battle
Although each international locations claimed victory after the battle, the battle over narratives has since raged throughout social media and public boards.
Pakistan claims to have downed six Indian jets, a declare neither confirmed nor denied by India, whereas Indian missiles penetrated deep into Pakistani territory, revealing vulnerabilities in its air defenses.
India has additionally suspended the six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a crucial water-sharing settlement that’s important to Pakistan.
Just lately, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Pakistanis to reject “terrorism.” “Reside a lifetime of peace, eat your bread or select my bullet,” Modi mentioned, throughout a speech in India’s Gujarat state.
He additionally criticised the IWT as “badly negotiated,” claiming it deprived India.
Muhammad Shoaib, an educational and safety analyst at Quaid-i-Azam College, mentioned Modi’s remarks mirrored “ultra-nationalism” and have been focused at a home viewers.
“The Indian diplomatic groups gained’t seemingly concentrate on what Pakistan says. They’ll solely implicate Pakistan for terrorism and construct their case. In the meantime, the Pakistani delegation will seemingly use Modi’s statements and worldwide regulation relating to the IWT to bolster their arguments,” he advised Al Jazeera.
Khan, who can also be a senior member of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), the ruling social gathering which premier Sharif belongs to, mentioned the upcoming diplomatic mission that he shall be a part of will concentrate on points like India’s suspension of the IWT.
“Our elementary level is that Pakistan seeks to keep up lasting peace in South Asia, however three main hurdles are posed by Indian aggression,” he mentioned.
The primary, in response to Khan, is “Indian-sponsored terrorism” in Pakistan, through which, he claimed, greater than 20 folks have been killed over the previous 4 years. India has been accused by the US and Canada of transnational assassinations. In January 2024, Pakistan additionally accused India of finishing up killings on its soil. India denies involvement. Pakistan additionally accuses India of backing separatist teams in its Balochistan province — once more, an allegation that India rejects.
“The second level is India’s totally irresponsible suspension of the IWT,” Khan mentioned.
“Pakistan has rightly mentioned that any step by India to cease our water shall be handled as an act of struggle. That is one thing that may convey all of the area in battle and I imagine that if India acquires functionality to divert waters in subsequent six to 10 years, and tries to take action, it is going to result in a struggle,” Khan warned.
The third difficulty, Khan mentioned, is Pakistan’s concern over India’s “standing as a accountable nuclear energy”.
Prior to now, New Delhi has ceaselessly cited the nuclear proliferation facilitated by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the daddy of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, as proof that Islamabad can’t be trusted with the secure administration of its nuclear weapons.
However in current days, India’s inner safety minister, Amit Shah — broadly considered because the nation’s second-most highly effective chief after Modi — has confirmed that India used its homegrown BrahMos missile towards Pakistan through the current navy escalation.
The BrahMos – developed with Russia – is a supersonic cruise missile able to Mach 3 – thrice the velocity of sound – and a spread of 300 to 500 kilometers. It will possibly carry each typical and nuclear warheads and be launched from land, air, or sea.
Khan, who served as protection minister from 2017 to 2018, warned of “unimaginable penalties” from utilizing such weapons.
“As soon as the missile is within the air, you can’t know what payload it carries till it hits the goal. That is very, very irresponsible,” he mentioned. “India has already proven recklessness when it mistakenly fired a missile into our territory a number of years in the past.”
Khan was referring to an incident in March 2022, when India fired a BrahMos “unintentionally” in Pakistani territory, the place it fell in a densely populated metropolis of Mian Channu, roughly 500 kilometers south of capital Islamabad.
India on the time acknowledged that unintended launch was on account of a “technical malfunction” and later sacked three air drive officers.
Ceasefire holds, however tensions linger
Whereas the battle introduced each international locations to the sting of struggle, the ceasefire declared on Could 10 has held, with troops step by step returning to peacetime positions.
Shoaib, additionally a analysis fellow at George Mason College within the US, expressed cautious optimism.
“Initiating hostilities is dangerous. No facet desires to be seen as irresponsible. For that to interrupt, it could take a significant incident,” he mentioned.
Tughral Yamin, a former navy officer and researcher in Islamabad, famous that whereas diplomacy gives no ensures, the ceasefire might final.
“India has seen that Pakistan isn’t any cakewalk. It has each typical and nuclear deterrence,” he advised Al Jazeera. “Either side will stay alert, and Pakistan should deal with weaknesses uncovered within the standoff.”
Clary added that whereas the India-Pakistan relationship stays fragile, historical past means that intense clashes are sometimes adopted by calmer intervals.
“It’s cheap for each international locations and worldwide observers to hope for the perfect however put together for the worst over the following few months,” he mentioned.
However Khan, the previous minister, questioned Modi’s feedback, after the navy disaster, the place the Indian PM mentioned that any assault on the nation’s soil would now be seen as worthy of a navy response, and that New Delhi would successfully stop to attract any distinction between Pakistan’s navy and non-state armed teams.
“The brand new said coverage of the Indian authorities is to assault Pakistan even after minor incidents, with out ready for proof. This places your entire area on edge,” he mentioned. “This trigger-happy coverage ought to concern not simply Pakistan, however your entire world.”
