The Neoprime Membership: Silicon Valley and The Rise of Protection Disruptors

OPINION — At the moment, after a post-9/11 period outlined by world counterterrorism and uneven warfare, the U.S. is getting ready for potential near-peer conflicts amid a brand new period of nice energy competitors, sophisticated by disruptive applied sciences. In response, a brand new wave of protection contractors is rising from the epicenter of American technological innovation: Silicon Valley. These firms are addressing important know-how gaps in areas akin to synthetic intelligence, autonomous techniques, area companies, cyber operations, small drones, and extra. They’re deploying cutting-edge options to fill functionality shortfalls the U.S. authorities has acknowledged—and so they’re scaling quick. Profitable high-profile contracts, they’re reshaping how the Pentagon engages with the personal sector.

Amongst these within the protection tech trade, there’s been rising chatter concerning the rise of those protection disruptors—what you would possibly name the neoprimes. We—considered one of us a know-how investor, the opposite a former portfolio supervisor on the DoD’s Protection Innovation Unit—are sometimes requested: Is the rise of neoprimes actual? What precisely is a neoprime? What defines one? We got down to reply these questions, utilizing knowledge to help our observations. We imagine neoprimes are altering the tradition of protection acquisitions and growing applied sciences that may reshape how wars are fought. Shifts in protection spending and coverage are empowering neoprimes to develop and transfer quicker.

To grasp how we obtained right here, we will revisit a pivotal 1993 assembly now often known as the “Final Supper.” Following the tip of the Chilly Battle, U.S. protection spending plummeted, prompting a serious drawdown. The Division of Protection confronted intense stress to chop prices, with budgets falling by about 30%—from $772 billion in 1989 to roughly $531 billion by 1998 (adjusted for inflation). In opposition to this backdrop, then-Deputy Secretary of Protection William Perry convened a important assembly with executives from the highest protection contractors. His message was clear: the Pentagon may now not maintain a sprawling ecosystem of dozens of main companies, and consolidation was inevitable. The trade responded accordingly—over 50 firms merged into the 5 dominant primes we all know at this time. These survivors—Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Common Dynamics—turned huge, vertically built-in organizations that managed roughly 60% of DoD contracts by 2000. For many years, they dominated authorities contract spending to construct and maintain the nation’s safety equipment, supported by an enormous internet of companions and subcontractors. However with predictable, annual funding streams and restricted aggressive stress, innovation inside these primes arguably stagnated.

Whereas many of those conventional primes hint their roots again over a century, a brand new tribe of Silicon Valley gamers has entered the sector. They’re accelerating deployment timelines and pioneering a special mannequin—outlined by speedy iteration, software-first architectures, and a higher urge for food for danger. They’re deploying operational techniques in months relatively than years or a long time. They’re not simply constructing prototypes for demos and workout routines—they’re scaling manufacturing and securing billion-dollar contracts. Whereas they might not but match the standard primes in complete contract quantity, they’re closing the hole yr over yr. A handful of key companies are main the cost, with an increasing set of startups gaining traction. Backed by enterprise capital and supported by a rising community of influential advocates shaping coverage and public opinion, neoprimes are beginning to redefine how the federal government approaches the acquisition, fielding, and sustainment of recent applied sciences. They’re turning into mission-critical to the protection industrial base of America.

As this new technology of protection contractors good points momentum, what precisely is a neoprime? To reply that, we analyzed knowledge from USAspending.gov (the federal authorities’s official platform for monitoring public expenditures), reviewed SEC filings from public protection firms, and compiled press releases from personal companies. We additionally interviewed founders and enterprise capitalists targeted on nationwide safety innovation.

Via this analysis, we recognized a number of defining traits of neoprimes and rising market tendencies. Our evaluation focuses on a set of present neoprimes—SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril Industries—alongside a cohort of rising firms like Protect AI, Skydio, Saildrone, Saronic, Hidden Stage, Epirus, Relativity Area, Axiom Area, HawkEye 360, Vannevar Labs, and others. These firms are starting to guide main protection applications with superior applied sciences and a essentially completely different strategy to hurry, software program integration, and supply.

Beneath, we define our findings and outline the traits that distinguish neoprimes. We imagine these firms characterize the way forward for nationwide safety—and to protect America’s strategic edge, we should quickly undertake and scale their options throughout the protection industrial base.

Neoprimes are Racing Forward in Division of Protection’s Important Expertise Areas

At their core, neoprimes are constructed round rising, frontier applied sciences—fields like AI and autonomy, built-in networks, biotechnology, quantum science. Lately, the Division of Protection has formally emphasised the significance of those applied sciences, figuring out fourteen Important Expertise Areas that mirror a rising urgency to meet up with and surpass world rivals.

To higher perceive this development, we evaluated the highest 5 mostly used Product Service Codes (PSCs) for a set of presidency contractors from 2018 to 2023. PSCs are utilized by the U.S. federal authorities to explain the merchandise, companies, and analysis being bought by means of contracts, and we gathered this knowledge from USAspending.gov’s contract award summaries by vendor. For Palantir, SpaceX, and Anduril, we then recognized the preferred PSCs throughout all three. We carried out the identical evaluation to find out the highest PSCs among the many conventional protection primes—Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Common Dynamics.

Palantir’s high PSCs had been predominantly within the data know-how class, in line with their core energy in knowledge platforms and software program integration. A lot of the PSCs related to Anduril had been concentrated in engineering companies.

In distinction, for conventional primes akin to Common Dynamics, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon, the commonest PSCs had been closely concentrated in {hardware} classes—masking gadgets like airframe structural elements, helicopter rotor blades, and shock absorbers. In comparison with newer entrants, their portfolios featured far fewer PSCs associated to software program or IT companies.

Prime PSCs Throughout Neoprimes and Conventional Protection Companies (2018-2023)

Neoprimes

Conventional Primes

Whereas conventional primes proceed to provide legacy platforms just like the F-18, B-2, and AMPV, even when Silicon Valley’s protection startups develop superior {hardware}, their techniques are essentially software-driven. These platforms usually depend on swarms of unmanned techniques powered by cutting-edge AI and autonomy. They don’t seem to be simply assemblies of steel—they characterize complicated software program and techniques integration challenges, being solved in actual time with applied sciences that did not exist a decade in the past. Notable examples embrace Anduril’s Lattice platform; small tactical drones from Skydio and Teal Drones; bigger techniques like Protect AI’s V-BAT, autonomous floor vessels from Saildrone and MARTAC; and Palantir’s choice making and analytics platforms that proceed to unfold throughout the Division of Protection.

Neoprimes are additionally targeted on interoperability. Conventional contractors are infamous for proprietary techniques that require their very own distinctive management techniques and restricted third-party integrations—like drones that may solely be operated with particular controllers, computer systems, or discipline kits. However proprietary all the pieces would not scale on a battlefield more and more crammed with robots, sensors, and drones, particularly as troopers are restricted by the variety of management techniques they’ll carry into the sphere. In distinction, neoprimes are designing software program with interoperability in thoughts from the beginning—constructed to combine seamlessly with legacy techniques and ingest any knowledge the federal government permits.

Total, the options neoprimes are growing are particularly related at this time, as many Chilly Battle-era instruments are failing to scale to the calls for of the fashionable battlefield. For instance, Ukrainian troopers are actually utilizing low-cost drones to disable costly Russian platforms—within the current Spider’s Internet operation, 117 drones struck 4 Russian army airbases and focused not less than 40 warplanes. The operation dealt a major uneven blow to the Russian army and broader financial system, with estimated losses reaching as much as $7 billion.The inevitable shift towards extra inexpensive, extra attritable platforms is forcing governments to rethink how they develop and fund main protection techniques. Neoprimes and the Division of Protection are racing to develop low cost-to-kill applied sciences—whereas additionally growing defenses in opposition to them—as these small deadly platforms develop into more and more widespread on trendy battlefields all over the world.

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Prototyping and Collaborating Straight with Servicemembers

Neoprimes construct working prototypes shortly and make a behavior to iterate with finish customers in actual time—making modifications on the fly, within the discipline. Now we have noticed that these firms do not essentially look forward to the Division of Protection to fund their R&D as an alternative, they develop options they imagine are apparent solutions to present urgent issues and discover methods to get them into the arms of warfighters—usually properly earlier than any giant procurement orders have even been positioned.

These firms will ship prototypes “downrange” with prepared servicemembers, generally years earlier than extra formal procurement contracts materialize. Protect AI, for instance, deployed working prototypes of their AI-enabled drones to Particular Operations Forces in fight within the Center East, gaining important suggestions whereas additionally delivering real-world outcomes for these early adopters. Different firms have taken comparable approaches: ship cutting-edge know-how to warfighters first—even earlier than any formal requirement exists—refine it within the discipline, and let the paperwork catch up later.

Delivering On Time and Inside Funds

Neoprimes usually prioritize outcomes over processes. As an example, Palantir was lately awarded a $178 million contract by the U.S. Military to develop the TITAN system, beating RTX Company in a aggressive choice course of. Remarkably, Palantir delivered the mission on time and inside price range—historically a uncommon feat in protection contracting.

As one instance of neoprimes’ outcome-first strategy, we have now noticed a rising choice for fixed-price contracts over the standard cost-plus mannequin. Beneath a fixed-price construction, firms are incentivized to innovate effectively, as they’re paid a set quantity no matter overruns. This stands in stark distinction to cost-plus contracts, the place incumbents are reimbursed for all bills and earn a revenue margin on high—eradicating a lot of the stress to function leanly.

When analyzing authorities spending knowledge, we noticed that just about 100% of Palantir and SpaceX’s contracts are fixed-price, whereas 65-80% of Anduril’s contracts comply with the identical mannequin. Among the many conventional primes, Common Dynamics has steadily secured an growing variety of fixed-price contracts, and the development is much less clear for others.

That stated, each neoprimes and conventional contractors proceed to depend on cost-plus contracts, as they continue to be the prevailing norm throughout a lot of the protection trade. We additionally acknowledge that ongoing debate surrounds the usage of agency fixed-price versus cost-plus fashions in protection procurement. Whereas advocates of fixed-price contracts view them as the best approach for the federal government to make sure worth and accountability, critics argue that fixed-price fashions could be too dangerous for complicated scopes of labor. A standard argument in favor of cost-plus is that it gives the mandatory flexibility when mission necessities are unsure or evolving.

Fraction of Fastened-Value Contracts (2012-2024)

Maximizing Income and Contract Worth per Worker

Neoprimes function with small, agile groups—usually with only a fraction of the headcount of conventional protection contractors. However what they lack in measurement, they make up for in velocity and output. Many of those firms are producing larger income or contract worth per worker.

SpaceX and Anduril have outperformed a number of main conventional protection contractors when it comes to obligations per worker, exceeding the ratios of Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Common Dynamics. And whereas Lockheed Martin has outperformed all in absolute phrases, that could be attributed to its considerably bigger income—roughly $51 billion in comparison with SpaceX’s $3.8 billion.

Be aware that as a result of Anduril and SpaceX are nonetheless personal firms, we primarily based their worker counts on estimates from public reviews. Palantir and all conventional primes report worker numbers of their SEC filings.

Obligations per Worker (FY 23)

Rising Use of OTAs in Protection Contracting

Whereas Palantir, SpaceX, and Anduril are main neoprimes, a number of different firms are quickly rising on this class. Protect AI, which started with AI-powered quadcopters for U.S. Navy SEALs and different particular operations forces, is now fielding its V-BAT unmanned aerial automobile in Ukraine, Japan, and Brazil. Firms like Saildrone and Saronic are deploying a spread of autonomous drones above and under the water. Cybersecurity leaders akin to Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, and Crowdstrike have gotten key gamers in areas like trusted networks and digital protection. Business area firms like Varda, HawkEye 360, and Astranis are constructing capabilities for on-demand area entry, persistent satellite tv for pc protection, and high-speed space-based knowledge switch.

With the rise of neoprimes, the Division of Protection has considerably elevated its use of Different Transaction Agreements (OTAs) in recent times, reflecting a strategic shift towards extra agile and versatile procurement strategies. OTAs, which aren’t sure by the standard Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), enable the Division of Protection to collaborate extra simply with nontraditional contractors, together with startups and analysis establishments. When correctly executed, we imagine that OTAs can result in higher, quicker, cheaper outcomes for everybody concerned—saving time, cash, and energy.

Additional evaluation exhibits that OTA utilization is clearly trending upward throughout the Division of Protection. Although OTA awards have elevated tenfold since 2017, nonetheless, they nonetheless account for under about 0.01% of the overall contracts awarded by the Division of Protection—it is nonetheless removed from mainstream within the broad acquisition group. Given what OTAs have already delivered, we will solely think about the impression if extra contracts had been accelerated this fashion.

OTAs Awarded vs Complete Contracts Awarded (FY17-FY22)

The Highway Forward: Partnering with Neoprimes to Meet Rising Nationwide Safety Wants

At the moment, we imagine the U.S. authorities is starting to acknowledge the strategic worth of neoprimes in addressing important functionality gaps. The Division of Protection has acknowledged its lag in a number of key know-how areas and has taken deliberate steps to shut the hole. Along with encouraging the companies to increase their use of OTAs, the Division of Protection launched the Business Options Opening (CSO) framework to draw non-traditional distributors. It additionally launched the Workplace of Strategic Capital to offer extra versatile financing choices and created the Nationwide Safety Innovation Capital initiative to help dual-use {hardware} improvement. Over the previous 20 years, the Division of Protection has invested greater than $20 billion in small enterprise initiatives—all promising indicators of progress, however extra work stays.

Throughout the nation, dozens of rising know-how firms are successful contracts that will have defaulted to conventional primes just some years in the past. These startups aren’t merely disrupting the protection industrial base; they’re actively shaping the way forward for warfare. Their applied sciences are starting to affect army doctrine, operational planning, and frontline techniques.

This shift displays a broader transformation in nationwide safety priorities—one we strongly help and imagine have to be accelerated. As these threats develop into more and more software- and technology-driven, we’re inspired to see Silicon Valley and its neoprimes emerge as pure leaders in enabling the following technology of army readiness. Now could be the time to double down.

Editor’s Be aware: The authors of this text are affiliated with Courageous Capital and MVA (MilVet Angels), which have invested in nationwide safety firms like Anduril Industries, Protect AI, Aetherflux, Hermeus, Ursa Main, and others.

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